Check Expected Marks Before Using a Guessing Strategy
Negative marking changes the arithmetic of an uncertain answer. Compare an estimated chance of being correct with a stated penalty while remembering that confidence is not a calibrated probability.
1 · question group | estimated correct probability percent | questions to attempt
FIRST-LOAD
Research prototype — checkout unavailable. Input is processed locally and a draft is saved automatically in this browser profile when storage is available. Reset to sample clears that draft; Pro history has its own clear button. A state link encodes your inputs in its URL: share only non-sensitive rows. Browser history, clipboard and anyone receiving the link may retain it. Optional AI use below leaves this device; it is not required.
Data note: Everything runs in this browser tab on the guessing threshold matrix: your question group | estimated correct probability percent | questions to attempt stays on this device, nothing is uploaded, and the reading is rebuilt only when you press run.
Perspective: Before: Enter 20 for twenty percent, not 0.2 or one-in-five text. After: the guessing threshold matrix shows the working beside each named row so the reader can change the assumption and inspect the consequence.
2 · Read the guessing threshold matrix
Educational probability arithmetic only. No exam outcome is predicted, and the tool cannot estimate your true knowledge or choose answers for you.
Paid layer: guessing threshold matrix print and history
one-time step · the free reading above stays complete
Free tier
- one complete guessing threshold matrix run in the app
- three samples plus unlimited article-demo runs
- unwatermarked result text and an explicit, user-triggered state link
What $4 one-time adds
- print the guessing threshold matrix with its row workings
- CSV of expected marks and row explanations
- last five reading summaries saved in this browser profile
$4 once for repeated filing of the guessing threshold matrix, not for a better answer. Illustrative time basis: avoiding one five-minute manual reformat per saved reading; no market-price or guaranteed-savings claim.
Local history (this device)
- No saved runs yet — your first run files here.
Checkout is unavailable until a payment link is configured. The optional unlock is browser-local, profile-scoped and best-effort, not server-verified access. Clearing browser data can remove it; there is no account or cross-device recovery.
Boundary and sources
Educational probability arithmetic only. No exam outcome is predicted, and the tool cannot estimate your true knowledge or choose answers for you.
- Method: For probability p, expected marks per question are p minus (1 − p) × penalty. Multiply by question count. At penalty 0.25, a 20 percent chance breaks even with leaving blank.
- All sample records are invented examples. The app does not fetch measurements, policies, files or personal records.
- Google’s official pricing page, fetched 2026-09-29, lists free-tier access including AI Studio. Optional formatting only; limits and availability can change. Free-tier content may be used to improve products. Never paste private records there.
Mechanism: competence-autonomy-loop
Optional AI formatting, not calculation
For this guessing threshold matrix, use the free AI Studio interface only if available to you, with no paid API key. Manual entry completes the same workflow for free. Supply only fictional or non-sensitive notes. Review its output against the source; never paste unresolved questions into the numeric rows.
Format my non-sensitive notes for a guessing threshold matrix. Return plain rows only: question group | estimated correct probability percent | questions to attempt. Preserve supplied quantities exactly. Do not guess missing values; list questions separately. Do not calculate or add advice. I will check every row before pasting into the local tool.
Accepted schema: question group | estimated correct probability percent | questions to attempt. No AI response is executed as code.