Forecast Pipeline Value From Stage Win Rates — Free
A pipeline total that adds every open deal at full value is a wish, not a forecast. Weight each stage by its historical win rate and see the number the funnel actually supports — and whether one stage carries it.
The proof surface
Revenue concentration checks read which client holds the biggest share of monthly income. This weights open deals by stage win rate to forecast what the funnel is really worth.
Why the flat version breaks
Adding unweighted deal values
Summed open deals overstate every forecast and erode trust in the number.
Using best-case win rates
Stage win rates should come from closed history, not from the target the team is being asked to hit.
Letting one stage become the whole forecast
Concentration is the flag to act on before the quarter closes.
How to work the deal funnel matrix
Use the stages your team already reports — discovery, proposal, negotiation, renewal — so open deals are counted at the correct stage.
Count live opportunities only; deals already lost or parked should not inflate the funnel. Six discovery-stage deals at a 20 percent historical win rate contribute 1.2 weighted deals.
Use a defensible average for the pipeline you are forecasting, not the single biggest deal. The weighted figure scales with it, so state the basis wherever you share the number.
The matrix flags any stage whose weighted value exceeds half the total forecast, because that stage is now the forecast. Renewals at 24,000 of a 27,000 total means a pipeline review, not a celebration.
What the deal funnel matrix replaces
| Question | Before | Visible working |
|---|---|---|
| Adding unweighted deal values | Summed open deals overstate every forecast and erode trust in the number. | Enter open deals per stage |
| Using best-case win rates | Stage win rates should come from closed history, not from the target the team is being asked to hit. | Set the average deal value |
| Letting one stage become the whole forecast | Concentration is the flag to act on before the quarter closes. | Watch the concentration flag |
A local arithmetic aid replaces hand calculation, not expert review. No paid AI service is needed.
Run it on the samples, right here
FIRST-LOAD
Input is processed locally and a draft is saved automatically in this browser profile when storage is available. Reset to sample clears that draft; Pro history has its own clear button. A state link encodes your inputs in its URL: share only non-sensitive rows. Browser history, clipboard and anyone receiving the link may retain it. Optional AI use below leaves this device; it is not required.
Forecast arithmetic on stage counts, win rates and an average deal value you supply. Not accounting, revenue-recognition or investment advice; use your own closed-deal history for win rates and treat the output as a planning estimate, not a commitment.
Data note: Everything runs in this browser tab on the deal funnel matrix: your pipeline stage | open deals | stage win percent stays on this device, nothing is uploaded, and the reading is rebuilt only when you press run.
Go deeper: the companion app files the same reading as a scored comparison matrix
The article demo above runs without limits. The companion app keeps a local history, exports the rows as CSV, prints the deal funnel matrix reading, and holds your drafts on this device — one free run, then $ 4 one-time for the layer that keeps filing.
The deal funnel matrix reading is complete for free. The optional $4 layer adds print, row CSV and the last five local reading summaries; it does not add hidden answers. Checkout is not configured yet; the article demo remains unlimited.
Open the forecast pipeline value from stage win rates companionBoundary
Forecast arithmetic on stage counts, win rates and an average deal value you supply. Not accounting, revenue-recognition or investment advice; use your own closed-deal history for win rates and treat the output as a planning estimate, not a commitment.
What this is built on
- Method: Use a defensible average for the pipeline you are forecasting, not the single biggest deal. The weighted figure scales with it, so state the basis wherever you share the number.
- All sample records are invented examples. The app does not fetch measurements, policies, files or personal records.
- Google’s official pricing page, fetched 2026-09-29, lists free-tier access including AI Studio. Optional formatting only; limits and availability can change. Free-tier content may be used to improve products. Never paste private records there.
Before: Summed open deals overstate every forecast and erode trust in the number. After: the deal funnel matrix shows the working beside each named row so the reader can change the assumption and inspect the consequence.
Optional AI formatting, not calculation
For this deal funnel matrix, use the free AI Studio interface only if available to you, with no paid API key. Manual entry completes the same workflow for free. Supply only fictional or non-sensitive notes. Review its output against the source; never paste unresolved questions into the numeric rows.
Format my non-sensitive notes for a deal funnel matrix. Return plain rows only: pipeline stage | open deals | stage win percent. Preserve supplied quantities exactly. Do not guess missing values; list questions separately. Do not calculate or add advice. I will check every row before pasting into the local tool.
Accepted schema: pipeline stage | open deals | stage win percent. No AI response is executed as code.